Archive for the 'Recession' Category

Is Second Life Headed for an Economic Recession?

August 06th, 2007 | Category: Investing, Recession, Second Life Money

Sure sounds like it after reading this post by Matthew Beller, The Coming Second Life Business Cycle, as he mentions the Lindens are controlling the amount of Lindens that are being released, and they control the value of those Lindens when compared to the US dollar.

In the Terms of Service, the L$ is defined as “a limited license right available for purchase or free distribution at Linden Lab’s discretion, and is not redeemable for monetary value from Linden Lab.” By defining the L$ in such a way, Linden has granted itself the power of a central bank in managing Second Life’s equivalent of a fiat currency. Linden can create as many new L$ as it wants, whenever it wants, and spend them or give them away at its own discretion. Also, because Linden maintains a peg of about L$270=US$1 on the LindeX, it gives the appearance that the L$ is as good as real-world money.

Fiat currencies are subject to much criticism, particularly by Austrians. However, they are not criticized because they cause undesirable economic distortions in and of themselves. Rather, they are criticized because, unlike commodity monies such as gold, they can be created from nothing, so are highly susceptible to artificial expansion and manipulation. This expansion, as the Austrian theory of the business cycle shows us, is the source of economic distortions that lead to unsustainable booms, followed by inevitable busts. Source: The Coming Second Life Business Cycle

After going into his strong evidence that the Lindens have unnaturally inflate the Linden supply, he lists a couple things that could happen because of it.

In the first, Linden will stop running significant deficits at some point. With less L$ available to spend, residents will demand fewer goods and services, leading to lower prices and reduced profits. Previously profitable enterprises will go out of business and the wealth of many residents will decrease, slowing overall economic activity.

The other possibility is that Linden will continue running deficits to the point that a sufficient number of residents and speculators will recognize the L$’s frailty. In what Ludwig von Mises referred to as a “crack-up boom,” everyone will scramble to redeem his L$ for “real goods,” which, in the case of Second Life, is probably the US$.

To summarize, it appears very likely that Second Life will experience at least some form of economic recession. Depending on its severity, it might result in Linden’s losing many of its customers. If Linden wants to prevent this from happening and foster a stable, growing economy within Second Life, it should apply the lessons of Austrian economics to its policies: abolish restrictions on content, strengthen the ability of residents to enforce their property rights, and, most important, tie the L$ to a real-world commodity money backed by 100% reserves.

Looks like we could be, guess I’ll look into selling some of that land I just bought. This article is definitely worth the long read.

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